As we approach the end of 2024, the American economy displays a multifaceted and intricate picture characterized by both resilience and concernRecent data reveals that the economic foundation remains robust despite various pressuresFor example, in November, there was a significant jump in orders for key durable goods, highlighting strong demand for machineryAdditionally, new home sales rebounded after being impacted by hurricane-related disruptions, indicating a potential recovery in the housing marketBeyond the aerospace sector, non-defense durable goods orders showed a surprising 0.7% increase in November, following a slight decline of 0.1% in October, surpassing economists’ forecastsMoreover, core durable goods shipments continued to rise, with a 0.5% increase in November after a 0.4% rise in OctoberThis persistent investment in businesses suggests that corporate spending remains largely unaffected by the Federal Reserve's recent aggressive tightening of monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation.

However, not all indicators are optimistic, as rising tariffs on imported goods initiated by the government are beginning to stir anxiety among consumers, leading to a sharp decrease in the consumer confidence index

In December, consumer sentiment fell by 8.1 points to a reading of 104.7, though there remains a notable optimism regarding the labor marketIn fact, job market conditions reached a seven-month high, with the current unemployment rate at 4.2%, which reflects a tight labor market and strong job creation despite looming inflation concerns.

In terms of macroeconomic forecasts, the Atlanta Federal Reserve has projected a 3.1% growth rate for the American gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter, aligning with the growth rate observed in the third quarterThe Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, yet Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that any further reductions dependent on additional progress in reducing price pressuresFurthermore, revisions in projections for inflation hinted at a less aggressive monetary easing path going into 2025, with expectations of a rate of 2.5% inflation by the end of 2025, which is an increase from the 2.1% previously forecasted in September.

Reflecting market sentiments, the dollar index climbed by 0.4%, lingering near two-year highs, buoyed by consistent gains over four trading days, totaling an increase of 1.2%. This appreciation in the dollar diminishes the allure of gold and other currencies for investors

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Safety-seeking behavior can also be noted as the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 7.3 basis points, hitting its highest level since May 30, and closing at 4.597%. Additionally, financial markets in Europe and the U.S., along with the bond and gold markets, will close early on Christmas Eve and observe a holiday on Christmas DayAttention will be particularly paid to the American adjusted new home sales total for November, expected to provide further insights into the housing sector.

In terms of the geopolitical landscape, developments around December 23 revealed that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated “clear progress” in negotiations regarding the release of hostages held by the Palestinian Islamic resistance movement HamasWhile these negotiations seem to be advancing, Netanyahu also stressed the importance of not overlooking Iran, vowing to collaborate with the U.S

to foster diplomatic ties between Israel and various Arab nations.

Overall, the trajectory of the U.Seconomy remains shrouded in uncertainty due to the interplay of internal policies, external trade issues, and the continuously evolving geopolitical climate, which all warrant vigilant observation.

Shifting focus to the technical aspects of the gold market, recent fluctuations have showcased a pronounced volatilityOn Monday, the gold market displayed a notable upsurge before experiencing a subsequent pullbackThe price action began with stabilization during the Asian trading hours, followed by a rise that briefly touched Friday's high before facing renewed selling pressure, leading to weaker prices as the trading session progressed into the U.SmarketNonetheless, the price hovered around 2610, where significant consolidation took place, allowing traders to capture minor gains

Given the bearish closing state and resistance encountered below the multi-cycle high, the important takeaway lies in monitoring the support levels around 2608; should this level give way, predictions of further downward momentum may take precedence.

From a monthly perspective, observing gold's performance offers critical insights into long-term trendsThere are two notable points of consideration: Firstly, since October 2023, the gold price has undergone monthly corrections, and precisely during these phases, prices have not fallen below the previous month's lowThe implication is that if November 2024 were to once again close with a bearish candlestick, it could pose questions about potential stability or continuation of the upward trajectorySecondly, breaking the previous month's low would signify a shift away from the bullish momentum seen prior, necessitating a cautious approach to expectations around recovery.

On a weekly basis, the technical indicators revealed signs of bearish trends initiated since the week of October 27, marked by the emergence of reversal patterns and subsequent downward performances

This week evidenced selling pressure that further compromised key support levelsAlthough an upward corrective phase can be acknowledged during mid-November, the overarching trend appears bearish as indicated by the price remaining below significant resistance at 2664, and solid support in the 2573 to 2537 regions will warrant close scrutiny.

Examining the daily timeframe, gold has been delineated within a tighter trading range following the breakdown of 2606, which now perpetuates expectations of continued bearish pressure aheadResistance persists at daily ceilings, which must withstand examination in the coming sessionsThe region of 2643 to 2644 will be of primary concern post a minor uptick towards a test of these resistance barriers.

Lastly, within the four-hour timeframe, the price surge from the 2582.75 level last week has revealed a potential upward correction; however, recent price action led to another testing of lower support